I don't know man, i think racing to AGI to it is still the best thing to do.
People claiming dangers and risk are just pretending or posturing. There's no more tangible risk than nuclear weapons, which we handled, and the upsides are insane.
Your lack of creativity is not a reason to believe that a super AI is harmless or less destructive than a nuclear weapon. Damage need not be limited to destruction. Introducing doubt is sufficient. Right now you have faith that digital Financial transactions can be trusted. You have faith that computer encryption can be trusted. You have faith that digital certificates will protect you. If an AI can introduce doubt into any one of those systems, that will be sufficient to bring about the destruction of those systems. Imagine a world in which you can no longer use a credit card or Apple pay. Where no digital cash transaction can be trusted or validated. What effects do you think that would have on commerce? How quickly do you think we can return to some trustable means of commerce? Do you think it will happen before your groceries run out in your apartment? Before your grocery store can settle its debts? Before your Amazon ec2 instance runs out of credits?
There's a couple of occasions that humanity was at the brink of having tens of millions of people dead by nuclear weapons, and somehow a single human interrupted the chain reaction
If you repeated this experiment 100 times, how many times you think the outcome is not a massive catastrophe? 90%? 3%?
It might be a matter of choosing which apocalypse you'd like. The non-AI state of affairs is not exactly super compelling on a long timescale right now.
I just don't see a bigger danger in AI than nuclear weapons tbh. If you can provide one to me i'll be happy to change my mind but most if what i read is
- cybersecurity => well bro if you can hack system with an ai you'll find way to make them more safe with ai too.
- biological issues => ok this is the ONLY one where an insane dude / regime could generate a super powerful. but i don't undesrtand how you can argue that we should stop AI in the risk some ai generate a super powerful virus. If you don't get there first (to AGI) and let a bad actor do it first (china is not gonna stop) then you will have no chance countering this virus anyway
Depending on where you live could be considered an active apocalypse that is robots vs robots vs people in Ukraine and Gaza and Iran being live-streamed, and actively betted on.
Do you have a more totalizing definition of Apocalypse?
You are wrong. A teenager with enough GPUs could never dream of making a nuke but they are absolutely able to run capable AIs in their moms basement. Totally different class of danger
> There's no more tangible risk than nuclear weapons, which we handled
What do you mean??? Nuclear weapons can't simply be downloaded and run by anyone in the entire world. Superintelligences can. Nuclear weapons can't slop the world into passing age verification laws nearly in unison, can't keep the general population fooled into thinking it's fine when democracy is falling out from under them. A nuclear attack would wake people up, superintelligence doesn't have to. This is a far bigger problem than nuclear weapons because at least we would notice nuclear weapons. At least we mostly know who has nuclear weapons. At least we have agreements about nuclear weapons. At least mutually-assured destruction is even POSSIBLE with nuclear weapons. At least those with nuclear weapons are literally at all incentivized not to use them. But AI is something that's very very easy to feel like you can get away with, and PEOPLE FUCKING ARE! And the worst part is that any random individual can be unexpectedly formidable with the help of a superintelligence and there is literally no way to know what will happen next. Anyone could do anything, any individual could make an extremely outsized impact. It's already starting to be a huge problem and we haven't even reached anything close to superintelligence yet.
Love to see that "superintelligence" that some random person will "simply" download and run when there are relatively only few capable of running today's near-to-frontier models, and actual frontier models are still a ways from being AGI, much less getting to the point of ASI.
People will put up with a lot. People are celebrating that you can run models on a CPU at single-digit tokens per second. You think there won't be a single person that can put up with that and also be dangerous/etc?
It's highly impractical. Imagine someone breaking into a house to steal something or otherwise, and they can only take 1 step every 20 seconds. They won't be getting anywhere, when even a child in the house can notice them and go call for help at 1 step/2 seconds and said help will come at 5 steps/second.
The problem is indeed people. How do we make the default choices most people make, better?
Consider that a lot of people will be very happy to ask an AI what to do when in the past they may have taken no advice at all. It's a hell of a burden but also a wonderful gift. If anything, progressive countries might eventually want to guarantee some basic AI access for people of all income levels.
I wouldn't be so sure. Given that the general idea is that commodity AI is terribly censored and filtered, a lot of people will probably seek out the most uncensored/abliterated models for their use, simply because they're uncomfortable with the idea of being censored or manipulated by the bigger labs. Despite that though, some people probably will benefit from the alignment done by the larger labs, though as we've seen with OpenAI's sycophancy crisis, that has been a bit hit-and-miss lately
I've tried some abliterated models. So far, they're not evil - you can make them say evil things, but they don't leap right to it without a bit of pushing. Or perhaps I'm not asking the right questions...
> Nuclear weapons can't slop the world into passing age verification laws nearly in unison
Why do you think LLMs are responsible for this? Governments all around the world copied each other with COVID laws as well, in a much shorter time frame, without LLM assistance. Social contagions exist in politicians as well as teenagers
I don't have evidence that every age verification law has anything to do with AI, but it's been coming out that the movement in Australia has seemingly been done by generating mountains of LLM slop and trying to slip it through the regulators as fast as possible before anyone has enough time to figure out what's happened.
Also fixing the economy as well. People are pushed to extremes when they are made to felt unsafe in their own country by foreigners that gets free handouts by the government when the citizens can barely afford a living
That conservatism works by creating an "other" to blame all of their problems on. It's very comforting for a certain type of person. All of their problems exist because too many brown people live in their city. Same strategy has played out over and over again. Sometimes we have to put them down like Nazi Germany. Too often we let them off with a slap on the wrist like we do with Republicans every single election cycle regardless of the damage they do.
"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
For the record I’m not white. And also it seems like you’re the racist one. Nobody was talking about anyone’s skin color or ethnicity, but that’s the first thing that you brought to the discussion.
As a non white foreigner living in Germany, I think people like you are the biggest problem in the society which makes everything about racism and bully people into silence that actually prevents people from having an honest, respectful and truthful conversation about the actual issues in the society
And I think people like you are the biggest problems in society. Someone willing to sell out your own people to support blatant racist parties like the AFD. You think that they will accept you because you're one of the "Good Minorities". But this story has played out over and over again throughout history. Tokens get spent. And that's all you can ever be to them. I hope your wake up isn't the same as what Hispanic MAGA are experiencing in this country. Never mind. I hope it is. I hope you get the life you vote for other people to experience.
Interesting way to phrase that. The easy way to solve rape is to castrate all men. We can save some sperm in case of wanted pregnancy, but since the vast majority of violent and sexual abusive crime is committed by men, it would be the most rational solution to the problem. Eevryone would be safer, even us castrates.
I guess we bave or should have as much control over immigration/asylum policy as we have over the diceroll of sex determination. Interesting gamble, cant see anything wrong with that. Also, why stop at males, females rape too so in the spirit of equity they should undergo the same prophylactic castration and that will be that
At least now riders are being added to applications and agreements that dispose of any cultural argument or litigatory posture that various misbehaviors were not understood to be barred prior to admission or status being granted.
About the same, 5-10, when you consider major (aka frontier) airlines.
Actually not a bad comparison. Both burn massive amounts of up front capital to protect an oligopoly in the hopes their commodity product eventually pays off.
Im waiting for the article called "stop desantropomorphizing llms" when everybody will finally accept they think like us, partly because maybe the intelligence is universal and partly because, well the datasets are fucking human bro
You’re going to be waiting a long time, considering they don’t think like us. LLMs don’t ‘think’ at all. They are capable of limited reasoning using the meaning and context embedded in human language. Essentially, the grammatical equivalent to a mathematical constraint solver. Nothing more.
i got the ick at that. i'm not ambitious for validation. i'm ambitious to maximize my agency, IN PARTICULAR from the need of validation non ambitious people typically have
reply