There must be a deeper read on why Google can rapidly ship better small models while being delayed months on the bigger model.

What's the simplest explanation?

Even though these predictions turned out mostly wrong, we should not castigate people for publicly forecasting! That is virtuous, and more people should do it.

Thank you Ed!

What are we to infer from no release of gemini-3.5-pro, but frequent releases of smaller flash models (presumably from the same large pre-training run?)

Google is in direct meetings with Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick and is prudently keeping dangerous frontier models out of the hands of customers until reasonable precautions can be taken.

Not forecasting though. You can't goodhart predicting real-world events

This seems bad for AI safety/risk. Does DeepMind have any checks on model alignment now? What's stopping them from using AI for military/surveillance purposes?

They already quietly agreed to "all lawful use" with the Pentagon, to no real fanfare. Gemini Slaughterbot Edition, coming soon to a DHS facility near you?

Would it though? Meta and Microsoft have had very scandalous AI things happen, and their shares didn't tank (or quickly recovered)

I would have thought Jeff Dean would never ever leave Google. What on earth is going on?

Isn't this the same as saying "utility regulators delaying connecting new power to the grid hiked electricity prices on the public by $23B?"

When my apples are expensive, I don't generally grumble about all the demand from pie makers. If they demand more apples, new suppliers should come in to restore the price, right?

Do you need apples to turn on your lights? Was there a sudden new influx of pie makers? Is growing apples a government granted monopoly business?

If the answer to these questions was yes, yes, and yes then I think you would grumble.

> I can ask an agent to add OAuth, you can ask one to add caching, and somebody else can ask one to rebuild the database from first principles and make the UI pink. Each change can be reasonable in isolation.

But this is just bad vibecoding? This would be bad if humans did it too. With agents or humans, you need to coordinate.

Nothing to do with vibes, it's just a process issue.

Yes, you can "add" anything you want, but if you can get that in to the main branch without a PR, it doesn't matter whether it was done by AI or human or both.

When I know something is (primarily) AI generated, I lose interest.

The exception is when it's about a niche I care about, e.g. an analysis of opening trends of early world chess champions. I'll read AI on that for an hour.

My sense is that, for most writing, it's fundamentally interpersonal, the information is about the author as much as it is about the world.

Maybe this flood of slop will cause people to care more about the substance of the writing, not the perspectives of the writing.