The more qualifications you pile on in the competence vs. luck equation, the more it looks like just luck. And the more it looks like any other field where many enter and few win.
The market selects for increasingly subtler and harder-to-attain qualifications, and while you could conceivably stay on top of what the market is looking for through careful reading of history in the short and long term, time spent doing this is time not spent preparing for actually starting an enterprise. The people who do succeed seem to only read history after the fact.
So, right-place-right-time-right-preparation? Boils down the same way, just with an added dimension.